On Cyber Warfare – developing a model to understand it.

In my first blog earlier this week, I described my interest in state organised or sponsored Cyber Warfare as well as also expressing caution in trying to define the boundaries around what it constitutes.  Since publishing that blog I have been attempting to clear my own mind about it and how it relates to older forms of warfare.

As a consequence of this train of thought I sketched out a simple model.  This model is a work in progress and since making it I am unsure if it accurately shows how Cyber Warfare fits in, but I believe it does begin to show that placing aspects of it in clearly defined boundaries is not straightforward.

In particular, is the act of deliberately attacking computer systems Non-Kinetic or Kinetic?  On the surface you can very logically say it is non-kinetic. Attacking a computer system does not generate the obvious violent effects of an air bombing campaign, such as the US ‘Shock and Awe’ campaign which destroyed Iraq’s power networks. Yet, once you dig a little deeper into cyber warfare the previously straightforward answer becomes far more complex. The physical effects of a cyber attack and bombing campaign can be the same, i.e. a cyber attack can in theory bring power stations to a halt and stop a nation’s power supply.  Is this result not kinetic?  I argue it is, so my conclusion is that Cyber Warfare straddles both Non-Kinetic and Kinetic warfare.

However, upon drawing this conclusion and re-reading my previous blog, I quickly realised that the model did not fit in with the definition of cyber warfare put forward by Richard A. Clarke and Robert K. Knake in their book Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It. It was this definition that I presented in my first blog.  The issue with this definition is that it is too narrow and technical, limiting its focus to computers and systems, whereas my model attempts to show that deliberate cyber warfare can also be used to attack the human mind, albeit in an unconventional manner.  As a result I personally would define Cyber Warfare as:  Non-Kinetic and Kinetic Warfare in Cyber space.  Perhaps I have done the opposite of Clarke and Knake’s narrow definition, and made this definition too broad?  I hope to find out in my future studies.

Those are my early thoughts.  To support my model and definition I will try to give examples in future blogs. Indeed it will be interesting to see how the model evolves during the course of my studies.

Works referenced:

Clarke, R. A. and Knake, R. A., Cyberwar, (New York: Ecco Press., 2010).