This week’s blog connects a series of random news reports, my proposition being that whilst Cyber warfare will not end kinetic warfare, it may end direct human versus human combat. Over the past couple of decades Western politicians have been fond of saying that a western intervention cannot be completed until there are ‘boots on the ground’ or BOG. Well:
- Will we have the humans to put the BOG?
- Is it even necessary to have human BOG? Will future wars be fought by humans in Cyber armies at a distance with robot soldiers as the BOG?
There is an ever increasing amount of pessimistic reporting that the human race is declining physically, so let me start with Obesity. If you were to google ‘Obesity is a national epidemic’, you would find reports stretching back at least a decade. Look at this compelling and watchable TED talk by US Lieutenant General Mark Hertling from 2012, in which he convincingly argues why obesity is a national security issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWN13pKVp9s
Directly related to our ever increasing Obesity is our increasingly sedentary lifestyle. Late last month Dr. Paul Clayton, of the Institute of Food, Brain and Behaviour at Oxford University, warned that Homo Sapiens had become Homo Sedensis, a species that no longer does enough exercise and physical activity to justify the number of calories humans need to support themselves nutritionally. I could not help being amused by the description Homo Sedensis but, setting aside that the point of the article is that he is announcing the development of a super-supplement to tackle the problem, the sobering thought is that I get the point he is making.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2018/10/27/home-sapiens-have-become-homo-sedensis-warns-oxford-academic/ and https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6327415/Brits-homo-sedens-inactivity-claims-Oxford-University-academic.html
(I will now pause this blog to go out for a swim…!).
Compounding the problem is recruiting for the armed forces. For over a year there has been a steady drip of reports that the UK’s armed forces are under-strength and struggling to recruit. This article below by the Independent sums up the challenge: “Nevertheless, that Britain is no longer able to fulfil its recruitment needs for the regular forces is symbolic of the country’s situation. With an ageing population – and, it should be said, relatively high employment levels – a career in the military is an attractive option for fewer people than it was in the past. Controversy over the UK’s involvement in recent conflicts in the Middle East may have made some potential recruits think twice too.” https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/british-army-recruitment-brexit-foreign-commonwealth-military-defence-nhs-a8617911.html
Those conditions may change and recruiting may improve, but I cannot help thinking that this is a long-term trend when linked to obesity (unsuitable recruits), its side effects (diabetes and asthma-like respiratory problems) and Homo Sedensis (too unfit to undergo military training).
It is not just a UK problem. More worrying is that America, the country we rely on to protect the democratic values we treasure, is suffering from the same problem, indeed only two US states had an obese adult population under 25% in 2017, which is a shocking statistic – https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html. Consequently the Americans are also lowering recruiting standards. This New York Times article makes this worrying point: “On top of having to compete with a robust economy, with an unemployment rate below 4 percent, the Army must pick from what it says is a shrinking pool of eligible recruits. More than two-thirds of young adults do not qualify for military service because of poor physical fitness or other issues such as drug use, according to the Army.” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/us/army-recruiting-shortage.html
So, what to do about it? Given that the human race is unlikely to become slim and super fit, a solution may be forced on our Government and armed forces, indeed it may already be happening. A short piece in the Sunday Telegraph on 28th October 2018 reported a prediction by Ben Nimmo of The Atlantic Institute “I think we are going to see more and more troll armies. The perception has gone out that Russia threw the US election… It’s a lot cheaper than having a [real] army”.
Which is why Prof Paul Theron, a member of NATO’s cybersecurity research group, recently said that the UK needs a 50,000 strong Cyber Army to defend it against Cyber attacks. https://www.cybersecurity-insiders.com/britain-is-vulnerable-to-cyber-attacks-due-to-the-shortage-of-50k-cyber-security-specialists/ (Also see https://sputniknews.com/politics/201706301055129492-pentagon-on-russian-troll-power/ )
Dare I say that this is an ideal job for Homo Sedensis and predict that recruiting will be much easier?
The British Army’s new Chief of the General Staff (who does not read this blog) would disagree with my proposition. The following text is taken from an interview for the Daily Telegraph on 23rd November 2018,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/23/army-chiefmark-carleton-smith-robots-will-never-replace-troops/ with the headline, ‘Robots will never replace troops on the battlefield’:
Nor is Gen Carleton-Smith persuaded that the development of autonomous war-fighting technology, such as drones and robots, will diminish the need for soldiers.“Warfare is fundamentally a contest of human will,” he said. “Robotics are the next horizon in terms of being the new arrow in the quiver. But fundamentally I believe you are never going to remove the visceral human aspect to it, particularly if you believe that warfare is conducted to shape a particular political condition. “The nature of warfare therefore will remain unchanged. But the means by which it is waged will embrace new systems.”The development of new technologies does, though, mean that the Army now faces an era of unprecedented change, one the energetic Gen Carleton-Smith is eager to embrace.“The challenge is to cater for all conventional military responses but also the less conventional areas, such as cyber. That will require different thinking and skills.”
I hope you can now see how I have joined the dots up in my mind. When Obesity, Homo Sedensis, armed forces recruiting problems and Troll Armies are linked to the terminator-style robot soldiers mentioned in my last blog, is it too far-fetched to predict that at some time in the future we will no longer see human BOG?
The Future?
(Russian Military Army Soldier Troll for sale on Ebay)
Swansea Student Blog on Cyber Warfare 