Were you aware that 2049 will be the Centenary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China? It had not occurred to me until now, but it is obvious when you think about it. The reason for me asking the question will become clear.
On Saturday I read a brief report that the U.S. is asking its allies to stop using equipment made by Chinese technology giant Huawei. I was not surprised given what I have learnt in preparing my recent blogs, immediately thinking that it follows a predictable pattern, but then my research took me into deeper and more worrying strategic geo-political territory. My conclusion is that, potentially, Western democracy as we know it might be confined and restricted to a small number of countries, and Cyber Warfare will have played a part in creating this situation. Let me take you through what I found out.
The Huawei saga
On 23rd November the Wall Street Journal published an article under the headline ‘Washington Asks Allies to Drop Huawei – U.S. worried about potential Chinese meddling in 5G networks’ and reporting that ‘The U.S. government has initiated an extraordinary outreach campaign to foreign allies, trying to persuade wireless and internet providers in these countries to avoid telecommunications equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies Co.’ https://www.wsj.com/articles/washington-asks-allies-to-drop-huawei-1542965105?tesla=y&ns=prod/accounts-wsj
A wide range of other agencies picked up the report and this one by ITPro reported that this action by the U.S. government is ‘part of a broader “technological cold war” between US allies and China for control of an increasingly digitalised future, set to be vulnerable to over-surveillance and cyber attacks’.
https://www.itpro.co.uk/security/32433/us-gov-presses-allies-to-ditch-huawei
This report states ‘Huawei has long said it is an employee-owned company and isn’t beholden to any government, and has never used its equipment to spy on or sabotage other countries. It said its equipment is as safe as that of Western competitors, such as Finland’s Nokia Corp. and Sweden’s Ericsson, because all manufacturers share common supply lines. Huawei representatives didn’t provide comment on the U.S. government’s overseas outreach.’ https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-asks-allies-to-shun-china-s-huawei-due-to-cybersecurity-threats-118112300086_1.html
Well, that all made sense – superficially – but then I dug further.
Is this U.S. economic protectionism?
I found this CNBC article from 25th February 2018. In it Richard Yu, CEO of Huawei’s consumer business, ‘called the developments in the U.S. “ridiculous” and said that its rivals are playing politics. “Our competitors are using some political way … to try to kick us out from the U.S. market but we have no issue at all. We are transparent … we are a leading high-tech, innovative company,” Yu said on Sunday. “But they cannot compete with us on product, on technology, on innovation, so they compete with us [using] politics.”
Well, that makes sense too. I would expect the Americans to behave that way to protect their own technological giants, indeed Huawei ‘…was banned from bidding for government contracts in 2014, after being labelled a national security threat in a congressional report two years earlier‘. Although it must also be noted that this has not stopped Huawei growing into the world’s second biggest smartphone supplier (surpassing Apple).
This Forbes article from 11th September 2018 reinforces my thinking that the U.S.’s recent action against Huawei is in fact not to do with security but economics. The headline reads ‘The U.S.-China Trade War And Global Economic Dominance’. Part of the article states this ‘Consequently, Trump’s trade war with China is really about blocking, or at least slowing down, China’s technology upgrade and its expanding global economic influence. Chinese investment in the tech sector in the U.S. has come under tougher scrutiny, and American government agencies are put on high alert against Chinese efforts in industrial espionage. The clause of protecting national security in the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 is increasingly invoked to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports and to curtail China’s business mergers and acquisitions in the U.S.’ https://www.forbes.com/sites/yuwahedrickwong/2018/09/11/the-u-s-china-trade-war-and-global-economic-dominance/#368cfbb7256a
This later article from Forbes on 18th October 2018 opens with this point: ‘Fears of China seem to grow every day – as an economic and technological rival as well as for its military prowess. One poll, sponsored by the firm Axios, found that almost two-thirds of Americans fear China’s growing economic power and that an only slightly smaller proportion fear its technological success. A recent gathering of prominent Silicon Valley venture capitalists expressed concern that by 2020 China will overtake the United States in the development of super computers and artificial intelligence, especially self-driving vehicles. Though there can be little doubt of China’s high ambitions and rapid progress, it would be a mistake, with apologies to George Patton, “to take council from our fears.” Realism requires more perspective.’ It is a measured article going on to say ‘It also helps to question if not doubt the motives of groups who warn of China’s technological prowess.’ and ‘It is not even apparent that Chinese technological gains would necessarily threaten the United States or its industry.’
China’s strategic intentions
Well, what to make of that? What is the truth about U.S. action against Huawei? Security or economics?
I then stumbled across a long article published on 3rd October 2018 by Bradley A. Thayer, Professor, University of Texas and John Friend, Visiting Scholar, University of Hawai’i, authors of ‘How China Sees the World: Han-Centrism and the Balance of Power in International Politics’. Well, when I had finished reading it I was alarmed. It predicts that ‘The world by 2049 will be defined by the realization of Chinese power’, that ‘By 2049, Western-led institutions will remain, but their liberal principles will be diluted by reforms required by Beijing’ and ‘If Xi’s “Dream” is realized, we can envision a world where by the mid-21st century, democratic governments survive in the West, but Beijing’s political model will have the upper hand in the international system. As with the Cold War, the struggle is material — economic and military power matter — but will also and ineluctably be ideological’. https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/the-world-according-to-china/
Gulp! This is my world. In 2049 I will be 53 years old. I really do hope the world does not turn out as the Thayer/Friend article predicts.
If you look at it from this, admittedly western, perspective, asking allies not to use Huawei products makes sense.
I should admit that I have an Apple iPhone. It is made in China. However, I will continue to use it.
Swansea Student Blog on Cyber Warfare 